Monthly Update
12 May 2009 - Buy ERII @ 7.81.
14 May 2009 - Buy TNDM @ 26.7
18 May 2009 - Buy WATG @6.53 28 May 2009 - Sell WATG @ 7.55 (+15.6%)
21 May 2009 - Buy Thor @ 27.30 21 May 2009 - Sell Thor @ 26 (-5.6%)
22 May 2009 - Buy QSII @ 52 29 May 2009 - Sell QSII @ 29 (-5.8%)
28 May 2009 - Buy LFT @ 27.19
29 May 2009 - Buy PEET @ 25.74
Total Trades = 10 Trades. ($20*10 = $200)
Portfolio Performance to Date = -3.79%
XIRR = 0%
Lessons Learnt:
1. Commissions of USD$20 per trade makes a great significance to overall Portfolio Performance.
2. Need to cut down to holding 4 stocks to 3 stocks to focus more on winning stocks.
3. QSII had an earnings announcement on 29th May. The stock fell 15% instantly. Need to put stop Market Sells during any stock's earnings performance
4. WATG was a winning stock. However, got cold feet and sold the stock too fast. Now its up another 21% (from initial point). Need to find out a good selling system. Currently, using a stop market sell @ latest support level.
5. Buy only on breakouts ( cup and handle) or on strong reversal signs. Buyin PEET was in restrospect a rushed order as I didn't like the feeling of letting money doing nothing.
6. Reduced my portfolio to only 30 stocks as I was looking at too many viable stocks at the same time. The important criterias are
- Accelerating Quaterly EPS
- Accelerating Annual EPS
- Institutional <95%>20%
- ROE > 15%
- High RSI.
Lets see how things go with this.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Finally
Finally!! My etrade account is online.
I'm only going to use one method to account for my portfolio performace - IRR.
May 13th - (USD1,347.17)
I'm only going to use one method to account for my portfolio performace - IRR.
May 13th - (USD1,347.17)
Monday, May 11, 2009
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/04/vinod_khosla_at.html
Interesting Video.
One interesting quote:
"What we are tending to do is increase technology risk so we can reduce market risk. We will generally take on more market risks, have a bigger jump, and a larger probability of failing at the technology such that when we enter the market we have a larger competitive advantage."
- Vinod Khosla
Assuming that two companies have equivalent risks, but one has more market risk then technology and vice versa, Kholsa would rather invest in the one with technology risk then the one with market risk.
Based on that very statement, I can infer that Kholsa is more a technology person. He's more comfortable with technology, he's a technologist, THAT's why he prefer companies with more technology risks. A salesman, someone very good at doing bulk sales, or a VC who knows market strategy very well, would choose the former.
Individual Judgement determines the perspective of risk. Yet, the inherent risk still exists!
Therefore, investors must always face the contradiction of knowing the company inside out, but have the ability to look at it from a "fresh" perspective.... a skill I'm always trying to achieve.
Another Interesting Nugget!
"One good metric of where there is good innovation potential is to go MIT and Standford and see what's the 1st choice for PHD studies in choosing project."
Hmm interesting metric. Have to test it out somehow by looking at the innovations at these Universities and see how many actually succeed.
Some of the ideas and investment he discussed.. I didnt think were very interesting after doing the maths. Lets see how things turn out lol
Interesting Video.
One interesting quote:
"What we are tending to do is increase technology risk so we can reduce market risk. We will generally take on more market risks, have a bigger jump, and a larger probability of failing at the technology such that when we enter the market we have a larger competitive advantage."
- Vinod Khosla
Assuming that two companies have equivalent risks, but one has more market risk then technology and vice versa, Kholsa would rather invest in the one with technology risk then the one with market risk.
Based on that very statement, I can infer that Kholsa is more a technology person. He's more comfortable with technology, he's a technologist, THAT's why he prefer companies with more technology risks. A salesman, someone very good at doing bulk sales, or a VC who knows market strategy very well, would choose the former.
Individual Judgement determines the perspective of risk. Yet, the inherent risk still exists!
Therefore, investors must always face the contradiction of knowing the company inside out, but have the ability to look at it from a "fresh" perspective.... a skill I'm always trying to achieve.
Another Interesting Nugget!
"One good metric of where there is good innovation potential is to go MIT and Standford and see what's the 1st choice for PHD studies in choosing project."
Hmm interesting metric. Have to test it out somehow by looking at the innovations at these Universities and see how many actually succeed.
Some of the ideas and investment he discussed.. I didnt think were very interesting after doing the maths. Lets see how things turn out lol
Companies supported by policy: To invest or not to Invest?
"As Venture Capitalists, we won't take policy risk. If the company will only be successful based on the implementation of policy XYZ, we won't invest."
Quote by David Gold, a partner at Access Venture Partners.
Interesting Statement.
I'll always had to struggle between whether one should invest in companies that are heavily dependent on policy.
One thing for sure is that if we treat this statement as a black and white ultimatum, we'll be missing out on much less economically viable companies.
Here in Asia, local governments such as Philippines and Thailand are favorable governmental incentives to make projects which would be otherwise ignored attractive.
Yet, Projects are still well-structured, makes fundamental economical and environmental sense and can still offer stable cash flows.
A single "policy", the kyoto protocol, created an entire market based on carbon cap-and-trade altogether, attract billions of dollars. Yet, it is also heavily dependent on policy.
I believe we have to be comfortable with companies that are only economically viable with the help of certain policies, and as long as it makes economical/environmental sense, with an adequate risk/return, it should be a viable project.
One should not simply ignore policy but really understand why it was there in the first place and what the long term impacts will be like.
Quote by David Gold, a partner at Access Venture Partners.
Interesting Statement.
I'll always had to struggle between whether one should invest in companies that are heavily dependent on policy.
One thing for sure is that if we treat this statement as a black and white ultimatum, we'll be missing out on much less economically viable companies.
Here in Asia, local governments such as Philippines and Thailand are favorable governmental incentives to make projects which would be otherwise ignored attractive.
Yet, Projects are still well-structured, makes fundamental economical and environmental sense and can still offer stable cash flows.
A single "policy", the kyoto protocol, created an entire market based on carbon cap-and-trade altogether, attract billions of dollars. Yet, it is also heavily dependent on policy.
I believe we have to be comfortable with companies that are only economically viable with the help of certain policies, and as long as it makes economical/environmental sense, with an adequate risk/return, it should be a viable project.
One should not simply ignore policy but really understand why it was there in the first place and what the long term impacts will be like.
Burying your Head in the Sand
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/program/2008_energy_storage.pdf
About time someone notice that Li-ion batteries have several problems before mainstream application as batteries for EVs.
Not very sure why so many analyst are recommending stocks whose revenue comes from the sale of Li-ion Batteries to rise in price, the economies just doesn't make sense. Then again, whether EVs will be successful or not also relies on the car manufacturer's ability to have a economical car body that is well-suited for housing batteries.
I've always based my expectations on car batteries on the technologies' energy density/$ and efficiency, which I believe is the two most important elements, especially if you use a Life Cycle Cost Comparison Analysis.
I really dislike it when analyst write investment reports like journalist, they try to pick an "attractive" angle of a story eg :" Li-Ions are all the rage!!!" and just proceed recommend a stock.
The worst thing is that when the better alternative is not publicly listed, these analyst just ignore it and go for the "best available publicly listed" stock. Thats just so studpid. It's equivlent to burying your head in the sand.
About time someone notice that Li-ion batteries have several problems before mainstream application as batteries for EVs.
Not very sure why so many analyst are recommending stocks whose revenue comes from the sale of Li-ion Batteries to rise in price, the economies just doesn't make sense. Then again, whether EVs will be successful or not also relies on the car manufacturer's ability to have a economical car body that is well-suited for housing batteries.
I've always based my expectations on car batteries on the technologies' energy density/$ and efficiency, which I believe is the two most important elements, especially if you use a Life Cycle Cost Comparison Analysis.
I really dislike it when analyst write investment reports like journalist, they try to pick an "attractive" angle of a story eg :" Li-Ions are all the rage!!!" and just proceed recommend a stock.
The worst thing is that when the better alternative is not publicly listed, these analyst just ignore it and go for the "best available publicly listed" stock. Thats just so studpid. It's equivlent to burying your head in the sand.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Great Coaching!
I had the very good fortune to receive personal coaching from my boss's friends. He used to work for 7 years at Mckinsey and it was really pleasure to receive some presentation tips from him.
He's leaving tomorrow but he was very courteous and friendly throughout the time he spent with us in the office. Best of all he treated me to a coffee when I ran out of cash :)
Here's some presentation tips he gave me.
Step 1: Think of the absolutely most important thing that you want the audience to remember. Picture yourself talking to a random person on the street. What kind of story do you want to say?
Step 2: Split up your story into short portions with as little words as possible. Put each portion into one slide. The less words there are on the slide, the more people will remember. Each slide title should contain the full meaning of the slide, and not just a generic slide title. Each point must be short and compelling to the reader
Step 3: Give Examples to Illustrate your points. Make sure the examples are interesting and have a fresh (unbiased) mind when choosing examples. In the financial world, use IRR instead of returns. Put points in bullet form if possible, and place Facts first instead of opinions ( more compelling). Try to be as specific as possible to keep things interesting (hard when you have many to comply to many NDA lol) Also, try not to use negatives in the presentation.
So thats it. 3 steps to make magic presentation. Will try my best to apply it to my future presentations :)
He's leaving tomorrow but he was very courteous and friendly throughout the time he spent with us in the office. Best of all he treated me to a coffee when I ran out of cash :)
Here's some presentation tips he gave me.
Step 1: Think of the absolutely most important thing that you want the audience to remember. Picture yourself talking to a random person on the street. What kind of story do you want to say?
Step 2: Split up your story into short portions with as little words as possible. Put each portion into one slide. The less words there are on the slide, the more people will remember. Each slide title should contain the full meaning of the slide, and not just a generic slide title. Each point must be short and compelling to the reader
Step 3: Give Examples to Illustrate your points. Make sure the examples are interesting and have a fresh (unbiased) mind when choosing examples. In the financial world, use IRR instead of returns. Put points in bullet form if possible, and place Facts first instead of opinions ( more compelling). Try to be as specific as possible to keep things interesting (hard when you have many to comply to many NDA lol) Also, try not to use negatives in the presentation.
So thats it. 3 steps to make magic presentation. Will try my best to apply it to my future presentations :)
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